Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 0.107990 0.126123 0.147035 0.173091 0.204899 0.242740 0.291575
2025-10-19 0.085107 0.107529 0.136001 0.175361 0.229243 0.301740 0.408964
2025-10-26 0.069133 0.093373 0.126817 0.177538 0.254717 0.371569 0.569737
2025-11-02 0.055469 0.079304 0.114641 0.172847 0.270466 0.435880 0.757461
2025-11-09 0.044195 0.066323 0.101227 0.163080 0.276430 0.490018 0.965085
2025-11-16 0.037574 0.059126 0.095274 0.164264 0.302953 0.596058 1.355256
2025-11-23 0.032193 0.052871 0.089555 0.164592 0.329470 0.720086 1.906774
2025-11-30 0.028315 0.048438 0.086120 0.168656 0.367133 0.897357 2.819938
2025-12-07 0.024990 0.044359 0.082472 0.171473 0.404891 1.107874 4.181263
2025-12-14 0.021578 0.039477 0.076170 0.166594 0.422180 1.278927 5.749930
2025-12-21 0.017886 0.033411 0.066150 0.149949 0.399877 1.306585 6.734817
2025-12-28 0.016164 0.031078 0.063803 0.152199 0.437177 1.600631 10.251780
2026-01-04 0.014861 0.029473 0.062944 0.158886 0.496687 2.081493 17.601717
2026-01-11 0.013548 0.027616 0.061104 0.162430 0.549797 2.630778 29.939886
2026-01-18 0.012390 0.025913 0.059293 0.165670 0.606658 3.328912 53.012683
2026-01-25 0.011120 0.023736 0.055795 0.162356 0.634855 3.923780 86.053964
2026-02-01 0.009847 0.021354 0.051266 0.154064 0.635291 4.337683 127.304521
2026-02-08 0.009086 0.020117 0.049660 0.155811 0.690788 5.431077 251.414129
2026-02-15 0.008387 0.018927 0.047945 0.156647 0.744610 6.744292 524.674187
2026-02-22 0.007861 0.018102 0.047139 0.160923 0.826403 8.822098 1386.291823
2026-03-01 0.007358 0.017258 0.046099 0.163959 0.906603 11.414664 4211.884049
2026-03-08 0.006743 0.016022 0.043580 0.159632 0.931856 13.311483 10871.021957
2026-03-15 0.005957 0.014219 0.038917 0.144025 0.856973 12.813069 14516.152276